Final 2016 Presidential Forecast: Trump Landslide!

Hello again sports fans IWS Radio Senior Analytics Correspondent Nick Dorris back one more time with my final presidential election forecast. This has been some kind of election season. Two historically disliked candidates and an electorate that just isn’t in the mood for this crap. Over the last two weeks though Donald Trump has built on his huge wins in the debates and now appears to be on the doorstep of winning the presidency.

As of right now I have Donald Trump with forty-eight point eight percent of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s forty-one point six percent. Trump’s climb in the popular vote has been slow and steady and befitting a man of his humble, blue collar persona. Clinton, on the other hand, has imploded just as you would expect from someone with such a volatile personality and lack of self-discipline.

The Electoral College is blowout city. After running my model more than 3.479 billion times, I have Donald Trump sitting on 351 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 187. As you can see the news of the second Comey Letter on Sunday was a devastating blow to Hillary Clinton and appears to be the coup de grâce to her campaign. 

I guess I should take a moment to acknowledge that most of the big forecasting sites are showing Hillary Clinton with a pretty substantial chance of winning. I think they are making some very unfortunate mistakes. Heck, the New York Times is giving Hillary an eighty-five percent chance of winning. What are those guys smoking?

And, while five thirty eight dot com is only giving Hillary a seventy percent chance of winning they are hedging pretty heavily making wild claims like “Hillary is doing really well in early voting in North Carolina and Nevada” and “Latinos and women are voting in big numbers for Hillary and that might be represented properly in the polls.” What a load of bullshit.

I tell you what. If Donald Trump does win as I have predicted? Hoo Boy I am going to come on IWS Radio next week and stunt on Nate Silver. I am going to tear him a new one and let him know there’s a new kid on the analytics block who isn’t blinded by partisanship or feeling the need to word things such that I can always claim to be right. It’s gonna get ugly people.

But, until then, this has been Nick Dorris reminding you that the numbers never lie.

BTW, you should totally listen to IWS Radio’s election preview from this week. It’s a real doozy! Matt-Man and Jayman found a way to laugh at this campaign while also conveying the very real possibility that American Democracy will die on Nov 8.

Election Forcast by Nick Dorris is LIVE!

Hello sports fans. IWS Radio Chief Data Correspondent Nick Dorris with my first post ever on iwsradio.com! If you have been listing to IWS Radio you have heard me taking about my election model and some of my early predictions. I have been working feverishly to perfect my model and I think I’ve just about got it down. There might still be a couple of bugs, but I’m confident that I’m giving IWS Radio fans a very good indication of the state of the race as things stand right now, one week out.

This has been the wackiest presidential race in my memory. There have been so many wild swings that it has been very difficult to keep up with everything. The polls have swung back and forth between Trump leads and Hillary leads that it can give a person whiplash! It seems like every time I check Twitter there is a new October Surprise! I don’t know how many more of them the American people can take. One of the things I’m finding in my polling analysis is that a large percentage of Americans are very ready for this race to be over. I feel like the “mainstream” media is missing this very important point. I also believe that this election fatigue could possibly affect turnout for either Trump or Clinton. I know that’s a bit of a contrarian position, but I do feel that way.

So, here’s where the race stands today: A dead heat!

My model estimates that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are currently tied at 43% each. Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin all have, I don’t know, like 3 or 4% each or something. Whatever! Who cares about them! What’s important is that Hillary Clinton’s once YUUUUUUGE lead is now gone. And, so is Trump’s! He had a lead too, right? See what I mean about how crazy this race is?

As for the Electoral College, again we find a VERY close race. When you include leaners my model has Hillary Clinton with 217 electoral votes and Donald Trump with 216. Can’t get much close than that! As you can see NH, PA, NC, FL, MI, WI, NM and NV are all tossups. That means they could go either way.

As I said earlier, this election is very hard to get a good handle on. But, I have now run my model more than 2.43 BILLION times and I feel like I’m really zoning in on a very good predictive model. I will continue to input information and work on making it better around the clock. I will be back in a couple of days to update the state of the race again. Until then, remember that the numbers never lie!

Oh hey! Don’t forget to check out IWS Radio! This week was our annual Halloween Extravaganza and it was SPOOKTACULAR! Damn good stuff and you should check it out… 

What Happens to Don Draper and Mad Men Characters?

Holaaaaaaaaa! Well “Mad Men” is back and everyone is all excited! Well, except me. I found the season premiere to be a bit boring. I think the show jumped the shark last season and I’m very much ready for it to end. In fact, instead of this 14 episode split-season (seven this year, seven next) they should have just gone with a quick seven episode “wrap everything up” final season. I’m afraid that this once great show is going to become the Willie Mays of TV dramas stumbling around embarrassing itself because it didn’t know when to go.

In the season premiere Don was in LA to see Megan Draper as they try to save their marriage. As he was flying back to New York to not go back to work (he’s still suspended) Don reminds us that he’s the second luckiest guy in the history of the world behind Ringo Starr. He just happens to be sitting next to a super freaking hot, broken, sad, lonely AND widowed lady played by Neve Freaking Campbell. Wouldn’t you know that smooth bastard had her hitting on him by the time the plane landed in NYC. Don still has game, yo.

The big thing everyone is talking about is when and how does Don Draper die. There is some other conversation about what’s going to happen to other main characters too. So, I figured I better get my predictions out there so when these things actually happen I will be able to prove that I predicted it.

Don Draper (Jon Hamm): Draper has absolutely no redeeming qualities whatsoever so I expect that in the end he will be the big winner. He marries Lee Cabot (Neve Campbell) and she helps him put his life back together. Draper and Cabot have an open relationship with each of them having numerous affairs. They start several convenience store franchises that celebrate their lifestyle called Quickie Mart, E-Z Mart and of course, Kum and Go.

Roger Sterling (John Slattery): Dies in 1973 of a heart attack after snorting cocaine off Grace Jones’ ass while having sex with Twiggy. His daughter Margaret Sterling Hargrove dies during the Jonestown Massacre in 1978 and for some reason leaves all the money she inherited from Roger to the Rev. Sun Myung Moon.

Joan Holloway (Christina Hendricks): Joan stays at Sterling-Cooper-Draper-Pryce and rises to the position of Vice President. She was promoted after banging NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle in the bathroom at Studio 54 which nailed down the contract of the NFL as a new client.  Joan went on to have a series of affairs with some of NYC’s most powerful men including Donald Trump’s father, Fred Trump.  

Peggy Olson (Elisabeth Moss): Drops acid at Woodstock and becomes a free love hippie travelling the country playing guitar and singing in honky-tonks and bars. In 1999 she helps to start up the Coachella Music Festival. Her daughter Zippi Love Poppa, fathered by Frank Zappa OR Iggy Pop, nobody knows for sure, is one of the founding members of Burning Man in 1986. (BTW, even though Peggy isn’t as wholesome, she’s totally Marry Ann to Joan Holloway’s Ginger, right?)

Betty Draper (January Jones): Moves with her husband Henry Francis and immediately began having an affair with HUD Secretary George Romney and then Vice President Nelson Rockefeller. After Rockefeller died while having sex with Betty in 1979, nobody wanted to have sex with her again cause men are totally superstitious about that kind of shit.

Sally Draper (Kiernan Shipka): Changes her name to Lynette “Squeaky” Fromme and attempts to assassinate President Gerald Ford in 1975.

Pete Campbell (Vincent Kartheiser): Joins the Hare Krishna Movement and is never heard from again.

Megan Draper (Jessica Paré): Got a few TV and movie roles here and there but is best known for playing the mother in the pornographic “Taboo” series in the 80’s.

That’s pretty much all that really matters. The guy seen falling during the show open whom we all assume jumped out a window is Ken Cosgrove. Both of Don and Betty’s sons grow up to be porn stars. Bert Cooper dies in his office and his body isn’t discovered for three weeks. Nobody else really matters.

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Matt Said Jay Said Amy Adams is Hot

Matt hustles, Jay bustles and You rustle …

Matt: Yo
Jay: Hola
Matt: What’s up?
Jay: Not much. How do I sound?
Matt: Wait! Don’t speak yet.
Jay: Wha…
Matt: Shhhhhhhhhhhh
Jay: Why?
Matt: The prep session isn’t being recorded yet.
Jay: I know, but we can ..
Matt: DON’T SAY ANYTHING FUNNY YET!
Jay: Oh I won’t, don’t worry.
Matt: Let’s wait until the recording starts just in case.
Jay: Okay.

*BEEEEEP* *BLOGTALKRADIO* 

Matt: Okay then! What’s up?
Jay: Oh nothing, how do I sound?
Matt: You’re clear but … not really an echo …
Jay: Do I sound like I’m in a room with no furniture?
Matt: Exactly!
Jay: I’m experimenting with my new microphone.
Matt: Ohhhhhhhhh … Well it sounds really clear.
Jay: Cool beans!

Matt: How was Christmas?
Jay: It was very nice. How was yours?
Matt: It was most excellent.
Jay: Well that’s great to hear. How was the Mac & Beef?
Matt: Freaking delicious! How was the steak?
Jay: Succulent.
Matt: That’s great. Schmoop is hung over.
Jay: Awwww. Poor Schmoop.
Matt: She’ll be okay.
Jay: She’s better than “okay” she is alright!
Matt: Damn right she is!
Jay: How are the New Balances?
Matt: I’m walking on clouds Jayman!
Jay: Are the comfy enough to sleep in?
Matt: No, I don’t do that, but..
Schmoop: You did yesterday!
Matt: Well, yeah I took a little nap with them on yesterday.
Jay: And when you woke up your feet felt refreshed, right?
Matt: Very!

Jay: Sooooo what are we talking about this week?
Matt: Well, it’s the show before New Year’s so I guess that’s it?
Jay: That makes sense.
Matt: We like to make sense on IWS.
Jay: Totally. We can make predictions for 2014.
Matt: And celebrity death pool!
Jay: Of course!
Matt: And maybe some resolutions.
Jay: Maybe a little look back on 2013.
Matt: And then talk about how awesome 2014 will be!
Jay: Hell yeah! Positive radio!
Matt: Paul Piatt has some thoughts on that.
Jay: As does the Rev Moneymaker.
Matt: Well I would think so. You know what we could do?
Jay: What’s that?
Matt: We could swap characters for a week.
Jay: Okay. Like which ones.
Matt: Well, you could be Guy Ahnyurdyck?
Jay: Ha! And you could be Drew Peacock!
Matt: Awwwwwww yeahhhhhhhhh!
Schmoop: Oh God!
Jay: It’s brilliant!
Matt: That’s Schmoop’s seal of approval.
Jay: Oh and I believe we’ll have Smugly Superior Dana too!
Matt: Sweeeeeeeeet!
Jay: Damn, this is gonna be pretty HUGE!
Matt: God only knows what else we’ll come up with.
Jay: Our creative brilliance knows no bounds.
Matt: It better not, cause we’re moving to PRIME TIME BABY!
Jay: IKR?! We’re ready!
Matt: We better be!
Jay: We’re not afraid of the bright lights.
Matt: We’ll rise to the occasion.
Jay: 2014 is gonna be huge
Matt: IWS Radio Bigger …
Jay: AND STOOPIDER!
Matt: There we go!
Jay: Let’s do this!  

Okay then! Be sure to check out “IWS Radio 2014: Bigger andStoopider” Sunday at 8 PM ET!! Note the time change! Prime Time baby!!!

2013 Celebrity Death Pool and Other Predictions

Hola y’all! Well, it’s 2013 and that means it must be time for another Celebrity Death Pool and Predictions for the New Year. Remember, I’m not saying I WANT these celebrities to die, I’m just saying I think they very well might.

Gallagher
George H.W. Bush
Fidel Castro
Nicolas Cage (this one is for me)
Betty White
Daryl Dragon 
Nelson Mandela or as he’s known in this country Morgan Freeman.  
Kirk Douglas (This will make me very sad as it will them make my impression of him in bad taste.)
Roger Ebert (Can’t wait to see all the right-wingers celebrate that. They’ll be the same ones who will be OUTRAGED at any left-wingers who say bad things about GHWB’s death.)

Dakota Fanning. (I know I say it every year, but it’s true that she’s getting into that “child star grew up too fast got into drugs and partying and OD’d” zone.)

Margaret Thatcher
Hugo Chavez 
Frank Bonner (He never responded to my very heartfelt request that he come on the show. That was probably my biggest disappointment of 2012. And for that, he must die.)

Jim Cantore (of course! One of these hurricanes is going to get him eventually. I’m guessing he’ll be impaled by a stop sign.)

Billy Graham
Fred Phelps (And hundreds of gays wearing rainbow tie-dye shirts will protest his funeral by singing “Born This Way.”)

Okay, how ‘bout a few predictions for 2013 …. 

- Taylor Swift will get married in April. Divorced in June. Married in August. Divorced in October. Yet, the media will continue to pretend that she is a pure and innocent snowflake.

- A professional athlete will leave the team he plays for and go to another. When he gets to that other team he will declare that “it was never about the money” and then tell everyone that he’s “just happy to be where he’s wanted.”

- The San Francisco 49ers will win Super Bowl XLVII and we will all be subjected to the absolute worst people on Earth. San Francisco bandwagon fans who truly the most horrible and ugly people you’ll ever come across.

- There will be a “Debt Limit Crisis” in March, then a “Financial Crisis” in May, then a “Gas Price Panic” in June, then another “Debt Limit Crisis” in September followed quickly by another “Fiscal Cliff” in October and the Mother of All “Fiscal Cliff Financial Debt Limit Crisis Panics” in November.

- Notre Dame will win the BCS Championship by a score of 9-5. Alabama will have the ball on the Irish one yard line first and goal with 2 minutes left but be unable to get into the end zone after running four consecutive dive plays right into the line. On fourth down there will be a mysterious Personal Foul call on Notre Dame giving Bama a new set of downs. They will run four more dive plays into the line and on the last play of the game will come up just two inches short of the goal line. The dramatic final sequence of plays will take place at 2:30 am as the game runs VERY late into the night because of the 8,391 commercials that ESPN will run.

- The San Francisco Giants will win the World Series and those horrible people will be unleashed upon us good, decent folks again.

- Someone you know will post “I won’t be around much for a few days as I’ve decided I need to unplug for a bit” on a social media site. That person will then proceed to post regularly or even more often than normal.

- Several people you know will announce that they’ve had it and they are deleting ALL social media. Two days later they will be back on every single social media site. Even MySpace.

- I’m With Stupid Podcast will again ascend to the top spot of the BTR rankings and this time will NOT give the #1 spot away.

Well there you go. Looks like it’s gonna be a big year!

Jayman
Jayman3768@gmail.com
@Jayman_IWS

Celebrity Death Pool 2012

Hola Bitches and welcome to 2012. How was your New Year’s Weekend? That’s great! Really? Wow! Dude was hung like a donkey! Well, I’m glad you’re happy. Oh mine? It was … nice. We had an excellent New Year’s Eve Party on I’m With Stupid Saturday night. It was lots of fun and games and all that. Then, I called into Dr. Mike’s and Warrior Kat’s show and we brought in the New Year in style. So, the Jayman had some excitement of his own this weekend. Oh yeah!

Anyway, as is tradition here on the IWS Blog, on the first post of the New Year, I publish my Celebrity Death Pool. This is the list of celebrities and pseudo-celebrities who I believe will kick the bucket in 2012. Now, I’m not saying I WANT these people to die. I’m just saying I think they WILL.

2012 Celebrity Death Prediction:

We’ll start with the people I put on the list every year because they are either very old or have a very high risk lifestyle:

- Abe Vigoda

- Wilford Brimely

- Keith Richards

- Betty White

- Ernest Borgnine

- Betty White

- Larry King

- Lindsay Lohan

- Leif Garrett

- Jim Cantore

Next we’ll list some people who have been very sick and are probably not going to make it:

- Aretha Franklin

- Etta James

- Larry Hagman

- Muhammad Ali

- Michael Douglas

- Nancy Reagan

- Margaret Thatcher

- Joe Paterno

- Zsa Zsa Gabor

- Robin Gibb

Of course, we’re about due for another former president to pass away. I think I’ll go with George H. W. Bush. I know his being the oldest makes this an obvious pick, but it’s really just a personal preference guess.

The only group left would be people who are young and/or healthy and don’t seem likely to die. These are the hardest ones to predict. (see: Phoenix, River and Ledger, Heath) So, they may seem like a stretch, but just remember anything is possible.

- Jennifer Aniston: Freak hairstyling accident.

- Dakota Fanning: She’s right in the drug experimenting accident age range.

- Nicolas Cage: Crazy people die crazy.

- Pitbull: There has to be a rapper on the list, right?

- Ralphie May: Many comedians live fast and die young.

- Lady Ga Ga: It just wouldn’t be her style not to.

- Andy Samberg: Young comedian AND SNL cast member? He’s toast.

- Heather Graham: The Brittany Murphy category

- Robert Pattinson: The Heath Ledger category

- Brandon Marshall: Gotta have an athlete on the list too.

Okay, so that about covers it. There’s my prediction for who is mostly like to die in 2012. Of course, I hope none of them do.

Jayman
Email: Jayman3768@gmail.com
Facebook: Jayman68
Twitter: Jayman_IWS

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In other news, as I mentioned earlier, we held a very special New Year’s Eve Party on I’m With Stupid. It was pretty much non-stop fun and jocularity. We came up with some great predictions for 2012, took calls and just reveled in the fun and excitement of the New Year.

So, give it a listen and relive that great night over and over again with us. 

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