The Trump Surge Continues to Grow

Hello again sports fans. IWS Radio Chief Analytics Correspondent Nick Dorris back with another look at the state of the 2016 presidential race. Wow! What a difference a few days make, huh? Donald Trump is SURGING into a strong lead both in the popular vote AND in the Electoral College vote. Looks like Trump’s closing argument is really starting to work with the American people. It’s starting to look like voters are tuning Hillary Clinton out.

Also, while there has been a lot of talk about Hillary’s vaunted GOTV ground game, it looks like it’s the Trump supporters who are getting out there and voting. While Clinton might have a slight edge in early vote in battleground states like Florida, North Carolina and Louisiana, the Trump plan of overwhelming his opponent with huge crowds are rallies looks to be working out pretty good for him.

As you can see from the map below, Trump is now sitting on 288 electoral votes to Hillary’s 220. Only New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Nevada are tossups at this point. Since you only need 270 electoral votes to be elected president, Trump is just working on running up the score and getting that big mandate that all presidents look for when they come into office.

In the popular vote I have Donald Trump at 48% to Hillary Clinton’s 44% with Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullen totaling 16%. As Trump continues to climb in the popular vote he will consolidate the vote in the tossup states and possibly even flip a couple of the blue states like Connecticut and Oregon. Barring some kind of blockbuster news, I suspect that will happen over the next couple of days.

Okay then, I’ll be back again this weekend with another update and of course, I will be discussing my analysis of the race on IWS Radio this Sunday which will be on in PRIME TIME starting at 8 pm ET! Until then, remember: The Numbers Never Lie!  

Election Forcast by Nick Dorris is LIVE!

Hello sports fans. IWS Radio Chief Data Correspondent Nick Dorris with my first post ever on iwsradio.com! If you have been listing to IWS Radio you have heard me taking about my election model and some of my early predictions. I have been working feverishly to perfect my model and I think I’ve just about got it down. There might still be a couple of bugs, but I’m confident that I’m giving IWS Radio fans a very good indication of the state of the race as things stand right now, one week out.

This has been the wackiest presidential race in my memory. There have been so many wild swings that it has been very difficult to keep up with everything. The polls have swung back and forth between Trump leads and Hillary leads that it can give a person whiplash! It seems like every time I check Twitter there is a new October Surprise! I don’t know how many more of them the American people can take. One of the things I’m finding in my polling analysis is that a large percentage of Americans are very ready for this race to be over. I feel like the “mainstream” media is missing this very important point. I also believe that this election fatigue could possibly affect turnout for either Trump or Clinton. I know that’s a bit of a contrarian position, but I do feel that way.

So, here’s where the race stands today: A dead heat!

My model estimates that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are currently tied at 43% each. Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin all have, I don’t know, like 3 or 4% each or something. Whatever! Who cares about them! What’s important is that Hillary Clinton’s once YUUUUUUGE lead is now gone. And, so is Trump’s! He had a lead too, right? See what I mean about how crazy this race is?

As for the Electoral College, again we find a VERY close race. When you include leaners my model has Hillary Clinton with 217 electoral votes and Donald Trump with 216. Can’t get much close than that! As you can see NH, PA, NC, FL, MI, WI, NM and NV are all tossups. That means they could go either way.

As I said earlier, this election is very hard to get a good handle on. But, I have now run my model more than 2.43 BILLION times and I feel like I’m really zoning in on a very good predictive model. I will continue to input information and work on making it better around the clock. I will be back in a couple of days to update the state of the race again. Until then, remember that the numbers never lie!

Oh hey! Don’t forget to check out IWS Radio! This week was our annual Halloween Extravaganza and it was SPOOKTACULAR! Damn good stuff and you should check it out… 

Hillary's VP Shortlist: Pros and Cons

Holaaaaaaaaaaa y’all! We’re down to the wire in the Veepstakes for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. So, as a service to our readers, here is a quick review of the top contenders to be Hillary Clinton’s Vice President …. 

Senator Tim Kaine (Virginia): 

Pros: A safe establishment pick from an important swing state who speaks fluent Spanish, Kaine would fit perfectly with Clinton’s only slightly left-of-center positions. He is also boring as hell and there’s no concern that he will overshadow the candidate. Also, writers can use the phrase “Kaine brings the pain” after every speech he gives. 

Cons: Who the fuck is Time Kaine?  

Senator Elizabeth Warren (Taxachusets):

Pros: Elizabeth Warren is wildly popular with the left in the Democratic Party. She’s pro-worker’s rights, anti-Wall Street and is a very feisty campaigner who has proven that she can get under Donald Trump’s leathery orange skin. 

Cons: Come on …. Elizabeth and Hillary hate each other’s fucking guts. We all know it. No way two women can run on the same ticket together without having a YUUUUUUGE blowout! Even if they win they will have put a line of duct tape down the middle of the West Wing and each stay on their respective sides. 

Senator Sherrod Brown (Ohio): 

Pros: A veteran who has a long history of liberal politics, Brown is another favorite of unions and other left-leaning special interest groups. He voted against NAFTA, the Iraq War, TPP and uh, other stuff that people on the left hate. Ohio is another very important swing state and he gives Hillary a lot of cover from her critics on the left including Bernie supporters. 

Cons: After listening to his raspy voice for about five minutes voters will be concerned that his three-pack a day smoking habit will result in his not living through a full term as VP. 

Miley Cyrus (California/Tennessee):

Pros: Young, vibrant and extremely popular Miley could inject some much needed energy and nakedness into the Clinton campaign. She can bring hundreds of thousands or even millions of young people to the polls and launch the political revolution that Bernie Sanders dreamed of for Hillary. Again, she can do all this while constantly getting NEKKID! 

Cons: I don’t see any downside here. 

Labor Secretary Tom Perez (Parts Unknown):

Pros: Another Spanish speaking hero of the working class left, Perez might go down as one of the most consequential Labor Secretaries of all time. Not that the bar has been set all that high on that one. Also, he’s a regular guy as proven by the fact that he goes by “Tom” instead of “Thomas.”  Most importantly, Perez rhymes with VicePrez. It works! 

Cons: Who the fuck is Tom Perez?

Rep. Xavier Becerra (Calif.): 

Pros: “The X-Man” … “Mr. X-citement” … “The X-Factor” … “X Marks the Veep” … “He’s an X-cellent campaigner” … “The X-terminator” … I think you see where this is going. Lots of upside here. Also, he was apparently named after a college in Cincinnati so that would help Hillary in Ohio. 

Cons: Americans might have had enough of people in high public office with funny sounding names. 

Matt-Man (Ohio) and Jayman (Arkansas):

Pros: A real outside the box idea of nominating two people to fill one position. Matt and Jay are a two-for-one package. Meaning they will split the salary and benefits of the office of Vice President evenly. They will also split the duties and have their personal assistant and good friend Jamie Mapleleaf  keep track of funerals and boring-ass conferences each has attended to keep things fair. Plus, they will keep the masses entertained and distracted while Hillary takes care of the business of the nation. 

Cons: They need Sundays off.