Hello again sports fans IWS Radio Senior Analytics Correspondent Nick Dorris back one more time with my final presidential election forecast. This has been some kind of election season. Two historically disliked candidates and an electorate that just isn’t in the mood for this crap. Over the last two weeks though Donald Trump has built on his huge wins in the debates and now appears to be on the doorstep of winning the presidency.
As of right now I have Donald Trump with forty-eight point eight percent of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s forty-one point six percent. Trump’s climb in the popular vote has been slow and steady and befitting a man of his humble, blue collar persona. Clinton, on the other hand, has imploded just as you would expect from someone with such a volatile personality and lack of self-discipline.
The Electoral College is blowout city. After running my model more than 3.479 billion times, I have Donald Trump sitting on 351 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 187. As you can see the news of the second Comey Letter on Sunday was a devastating blow to Hillary Clinton and appears to be the coup de grâce to her campaign.
I guess I should take a moment to acknowledge that most of the big forecasting sites are showing Hillary Clinton with a pretty substantial chance of winning. I think they are making some very unfortunate mistakes. Heck, the New York Times is giving Hillary an eighty-five percent chance of winning. What are those guys smoking?
And, while five thirty eight dot com is only giving Hillary a seventy percent chance of winning they are hedging pretty heavily making wild claims like “Hillary is doing really well in early voting in North Carolina and Nevada” and “Latinos and women are voting in big numbers for Hillary and that might be represented properly in the polls.” What a load of bullshit.
I tell you what. If Donald Trump does win as I have predicted? Hoo Boy I am going to come on IWS Radio next week and stunt on Nate Silver. I am going to tear him a new one and let him know there’s a new kid on the analytics block who isn’t blinded by partisanship or feeling the need to word things such that I can always claim to be right. It’s gonna get ugly people.
But, until then, this has been Nick Dorris reminding you that the numbers never lie.
BTW, you should totally listen to IWS Radio’s election preview from this week. It’s a real doozy! Matt-Man and Jayman found a way to laugh at this campaign while also conveying the very real possibility that American Democracy will die on Nov 8.