Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Final 2016 Presidential Forecast: Trump Landslide!

Hello again sports fans IWS Radio Senior Analytics Correspondent Nick Dorris back one more time with my final presidential election forecast. This has been some kind of election season. Two historically disliked candidates and an electorate that just isn’t in the mood for this crap. Over the last two weeks though Donald Trump has built on his huge wins in the debates and now appears to be on the doorstep of winning the presidency.

As of right now I have Donald Trump with forty-eight point eight percent of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s forty-one point six percent. Trump’s climb in the popular vote has been slow and steady and befitting a man of his humble, blue collar persona. Clinton, on the other hand, has imploded just as you would expect from someone with such a volatile personality and lack of self-discipline.

The Electoral College is blowout city. After running my model more than 3.479 billion times, I have Donald Trump sitting on 351 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 187. As you can see the news of the second Comey Letter on Sunday was a devastating blow to Hillary Clinton and appears to be the coup de grĂ¢ce to her campaign. 

I guess I should take a moment to acknowledge that most of the big forecasting sites are showing Hillary Clinton with a pretty substantial chance of winning. I think they are making some very unfortunate mistakes. Heck, the New York Times is giving Hillary an eighty-five percent chance of winning. What are those guys smoking?

And, while five thirty eight dot com is only giving Hillary a seventy percent chance of winning they are hedging pretty heavily making wild claims like “Hillary is doing really well in early voting in North Carolina and Nevada” and “Latinos and women are voting in big numbers for Hillary and that might be represented properly in the polls.” What a load of bullshit.

I tell you what. If Donald Trump does win as I have predicted? Hoo Boy I am going to come on IWS Radio next week and stunt on Nate Silver. I am going to tear him a new one and let him know there’s a new kid on the analytics block who isn’t blinded by partisanship or feeling the need to word things such that I can always claim to be right. It’s gonna get ugly people.

But, until then, this has been Nick Dorris reminding you that the numbers never lie.

BTW, you should totally listen to IWS Radio’s election preview from this week. It’s a real doozy! Matt-Man and Jayman found a way to laugh at this campaign while also conveying the very real possibility that American Democracy will die on Nov 8.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

The Trump Surge Continues to Grow

Hello again sports fans. IWS Radio Chief Analytics Correspondent Nick Dorris back with another look at the state of the 2016 presidential race. Wow! What a difference a few days make, huh? Donald Trump is SURGING into a strong lead both in the popular vote AND in the Electoral College vote. Looks like Trump’s closing argument is really starting to work with the American people. It’s starting to look like voters are tuning Hillary Clinton out.

Also, while there has been a lot of talk about Hillary’s vaunted GOTV ground game, it looks like it’s the Trump supporters who are getting out there and voting. While Clinton might have a slight edge in early vote in battleground states like Florida, North Carolina and Louisiana, the Trump plan of overwhelming his opponent with huge crowds are rallies looks to be working out pretty good for him.

As you can see from the map below, Trump is now sitting on 288 electoral votes to Hillary’s 220. Only New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Nevada are tossups at this point. Since you only need 270 electoral votes to be elected president, Trump is just working on running up the score and getting that big mandate that all presidents look for when they come into office.

In the popular vote I have Donald Trump at 48% to Hillary Clinton’s 44% with Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullen totaling 16%. As Trump continues to climb in the popular vote he will consolidate the vote in the tossup states and possibly even flip a couple of the blue states like Connecticut and Oregon. Barring some kind of blockbuster news, I suspect that will happen over the next couple of days.

Okay then, I’ll be back again this weekend with another update and of course, I will be discussing my analysis of the race on IWS Radio this Sunday which will be on in PRIME TIME starting at 8 pm ET! Until then, remember: The Numbers Never Lie!  

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Election Forcast by Nick Dorris is LIVE!

Hello sports fans. IWS Radio Chief Data Correspondent Nick Dorris with my first post ever on iwsradio.com! If you have been listing to IWS Radio you have heard me taking about my election model and some of my early predictions. I have been working feverishly to perfect my model and I think I’ve just about got it down. There might still be a couple of bugs, but I’m confident that I’m giving IWS Radio fans a very good indication of the state of the race as things stand right now, one week out.

This has been the wackiest presidential race in my memory. There have been so many wild swings that it has been very difficult to keep up with everything. The polls have swung back and forth between Trump leads and Hillary leads that it can give a person whiplash! It seems like every time I check Twitter there is a new October Surprise! I don’t know how many more of them the American people can take. One of the things I’m finding in my polling analysis is that a large percentage of Americans are very ready for this race to be over. I feel like the “mainstream” media is missing this very important point. I also believe that this election fatigue could possibly affect turnout for either Trump or Clinton. I know that’s a bit of a contrarian position, but I do feel that way.

So, here’s where the race stands today: A dead heat!

My model estimates that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are currently tied at 43% each. Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin all have, I don’t know, like 3 or 4% each or something. Whatever! Who cares about them! What’s important is that Hillary Clinton’s once YUUUUUUGE lead is now gone. And, so is Trump’s! He had a lead too, right? See what I mean about how crazy this race is?

As for the Electoral College, again we find a VERY close race. When you include leaners my model has Hillary Clinton with 217 electoral votes and Donald Trump with 216. Can’t get much close than that! As you can see NH, PA, NC, FL, MI, WI, NM and NV are all tossups. That means they could go either way.

As I said earlier, this election is very hard to get a good handle on. But, I have now run my model more than 2.43 BILLION times and I feel like I’m really zoning in on a very good predictive model. I will continue to input information and work on making it better around the clock. I will be back in a couple of days to update the state of the race again. Until then, remember that the numbers never lie!

Oh hey! Don’t forget to check out IWS Radio! This week was our annual Halloween Extravaganza and it was SPOOKTACULAR! Damn good stuff and you should check it out…