Hello again sports fans IWS Radio Senior Analytics Correspondent Nick Dorris back one more time with my final presidential election forecast. This has been some kind of election season. Two historically disliked candidates and an electorate that just isn’t in the mood for this crap. Over the last two weeks though Donald Trump has built on his huge wins in the debates and now appears to be on the doorstep of winning the presidency.
As of right now I have Donald Trump with forty-eight point eight percent of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s forty-one point six percent. Trump’s climb in the popular vote has been slow and steady and befitting a man of his humble, blue collar persona. Clinton, on the other hand, has imploded just as you would expect from someone with such a volatile personality and lack of self-discipline.
The Electoral College is blowout city. After running my model more than 3.479 billion times, I have Donald Trump sitting on 351 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 187. As you can see the news of the second Comey Letter on Sunday was a devastating blow to Hillary Clinton and appears to be the coup de grâce
to her campaign.
I guess I should take a moment to acknowledge that most of the big forecasting sites are showing Hillary Clinton with a pretty substantial chance of winning. I think they are making some very unfortunate mistakes. Heck, the New York Times is giving Hillary an eighty-five percent chance of winning. What are those guys smoking?
And, while five thirty eight dot com is only giving Hillary a seventy percent chance of winning they are hedging pretty heavily making wild claims like “Hillary is doing really well in early voting in North Carolina and Nevada” and “Latinos and women are voting in big numbers for Hillary and that might be represented properly in the polls.” What a load of bullshit.
I tell you what. If Donald Trump does win as I have predicted? Hoo Boy I am going to come on IWS Radio next week and stunt on Nate Silver. I am going to tear him a new one and let him know there’s a new kid on the analytics block who isn’t blinded by partisanship or feeling the need to word things such that I can always claim to be right. It’s gonna get ugly people.
But, until then, this has been Nick Dorris reminding you that the numbers never lie.
BTW, you should totally listen to IWS Radio’s election preview from this week. It’s a real doozy! Matt-Man and Jayman found a way to laugh at this campaign while also conveying the very real possibility that American Democracy will die on Nov 8.
Hello again sports fans. IWS Radio Chief Analytics
Correspondent Nick Dorris back with another look at the state of the 2016
presidential race. Wow! What a difference a few days make, huh? Donald Trump is
SURGING into a strong lead both in the popular vote AND in the Electoral
College vote. Looks like Trump’s closing argument is really starting to work
with the American people. It’s starting to look like voters are tuning Hillary
Also, while there has been a lot of talk about Hillary’s
vaunted GOTV ground game, it looks like it’s the Trump supporters who are getting
out there and voting. While Clinton might have a slight edge in early vote in
battleground states like Florida, North Carolina and Louisiana, the Trump plan
of overwhelming his opponent with huge crowds are rallies looks to be working
out pretty good for him.
As you can see from the map below, Trump is now sitting on
288 electoral votes to Hillary’s 220. Only New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and
Nevada are tossups at this point. Since you only need 270 electoral votes to be
elected president, Trump is just working on running up the score and getting
that big mandate that all presidents look for when they come into office.
In the popular vote I have Donald Trump at 48% to Hillary
Clinton’s 44% with Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullen totaling 16%. As
Trump continues to climb in the popular vote he will consolidate the vote in the
tossup states and possibly even flip a couple of the blue states like
Connecticut and Oregon. Barring some kind of blockbuster news, I suspect that
will happen over the next couple of days.
Okay then, I’ll be back again this weekend with another
update and of course, I will be discussing my analysis of the race on IWS Radio
this Sunday which will be on in PRIME TIME starting at 8 pm ET! Until then,
remember: The Numbers Never Lie!