Hello sports fans. IWS Radio Chief Data Correspondent Nick Dorris with my first post ever on iwsradio.com! If you have been listing to IWS Radio you have heard me taking about my election model and some of my early predictions. I have been working feverishly to perfect my model and I think I’ve just about got it down. There might still be a couple of bugs, but I’m confident that I’m giving IWS Radio fans a very good indication of the state of the race as things stand right now, one week out.
This has been the wackiest presidential race in my memory. There have been so many wild swings that it has been very difficult to keep up with everything. The polls have swung back and forth between Trump leads and Hillary leads that it can give a person whiplash! It seems like every time I check Twitter there is a new October Surprise! I don’t know how many more of them the American people can take. One of the things I’m finding in my polling analysis is that a large percentage of Americans are very ready for this race to be over. I feel like the “mainstream” media is missing this very important point. I also believe that this election fatigue could possibly affect turnout for either Trump or Clinton. I know that’s a bit of a contrarian position, but I do feel that way.
So, here’s where the race stands today: A dead heat!
My model estimates that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are currently tied at 43% each. Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin all have, I don’t know, like 3 or 4% each or something. Whatever! Who cares about them! What’s important is that Hillary Clinton’s once YUUUUUUGE lead is now gone. And, so is Trump’s! He had a lead too, right? See what I mean about how crazy this race is?
As for the Electoral College, again we find a VERY close race. When you include leaners my model has Hillary Clinton with 217 electoral votes and Donald Trump with 216. Can’t get much close than that! As you can see NH, PA, NC, FL, MI, WI, NM and NV are all tossups. That means they could go either way.
As I said earlier, this election is very hard to get a good handle on. But, I have now run my model more than 2.43 BILLION times and I feel like I’m really zoning in on a very good predictive model. I will continue to input information and work on making it better around the clock. I will be back in a couple of days to update the state of the race again. Until then, remember that the numbers never lie!
Oh hey! Don’t forget to check out IWS Radio! This week was our annual Halloween Extravaganza and it was SPOOKTACULAR! Damn good stuff and you should check it out…